The Resource Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years, Christopher Paul

Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years, Christopher Paul

Label
Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years
Title
Counterinsurgency scorecard
Title remainder
Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years
Statement of responsibility
Christopher Paul
Title variation
Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past thirty years
Creator
Contributor
Provider
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly predicted the outcome of those 30 insurgencies. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi, exercise in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2011 Afghanistan scores in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses: its score was lower than that in the lowest-scoring historical COIN win but higher than that in the highest-scoring COIN loss. This suggests an uncertain outcome in Afghanistan, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue
Member of
Cataloging source
AWC
http://library.link/vocab/creatorDate
1971-
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Paul, Christopher
Index
no index present
LC call number
U241
LC item number
.P393 2011
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • JSTOR Open Access
  • Rand Corporation
  • National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
Series statement
Occasional paper
Series volume
OP-337-OSD
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Counterinsurgency
  • HISTORY
  • TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING
  • COMPUTERS
  • Counterinsurgency
  • Afghanistan
Label
Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years, Christopher Paul
Instantiates
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (page 19)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
black and white
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (19 pages).
Form of item
online
Isbn
9780833058119
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
c
Specific material designation
remote
Stock number
  • 22573/ctt3n954
  • 5A7BA683-CFE1-4023-96F6-22033D88F173
System control number
  • (OCoLC)733496281
  • (OCoLC)ocn733496281
Label
Counterinsurgency scorecard : Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years, Christopher Paul
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (page 19)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
black and white
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (19 pages).
Form of item
online
Isbn
9780833058119
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
c
Specific material designation
remote
Stock number
  • 22573/ctt3n954
  • 5A7BA683-CFE1-4023-96F6-22033D88F173
System control number
  • (OCoLC)733496281
  • (OCoLC)ocn733496281

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