The Resource Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs

Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs

Label
Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs
Title
Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs
Contributor
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
This study focuses on evaluating (1) the accuracy of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation's (FCIC's) independent price forecasts, (2) the effect that inaccuracies in these forecasts can have on program costs, and (3) how FCIC can improve its forecast accuracy. We found that FCIC's corn, wheat, and soybeans price forecasts exhibit large bias errors that exceed those of other available alternative forecasts and that FCIC would have spent about $194 million less than it did if it had used the forecasts made by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) over crop years 1983 to 1989. We identified other forecasting and program cost issues that we believe affect the actuarial soundness of the program. These include (1) forecasts being made earlier in the crop year than necessary, thus leading to potentially larger errors; (2) the lack of an effective management process to evaluate forecast accuracy and methods; (3) the failure to adjust national program price selection options when information on local price variations can be used; and (4) the failure to deduct harvest costs when total crop losses occur. FCIC is a wholly government-owned corporation offering limited protection for participating farmers against unavoidable losses caused by natural risks, such as drought, flood, insect infestation, and other natural disasters. All farmers are eligible to participate if an insurance program exists for their crop in their county
Cataloging source
DTICE
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE WASHINGTON DC PROGRAM EVALUATION AND METHODOLOGY DIV
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Costs
  • Farm crops
  • Economic forecasting
  • Economic analysis
  • Accuracy
  • Errors
  • Protection
  • Losses
  • Corn
  • Soybeans
  • Wheat
  • Natural disasters
  • Administration and Management
  • Economics and Cost Analysis
Label
Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs
Instantiates
Publication
Note
Report to J. Robert Kerrey, U.S. Senate
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Extent
77 pages
Form of item
online
Governing access note
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Note
Hein Online
System control number
  • (OCoLC)227901138
  • (OCoLC)ocn227901138
Label
Crop Insurance Inaccurate FCIC Price Forecasts Increase Program Costs
Publication
Note
Report to J. Robert Kerrey, U.S. Senate
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Extent
77 pages
Form of item
online
Governing access note
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Note
Hein Online
System control number
  • (OCoLC)227901138
  • (OCoLC)ocn227901138

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