Borrow it
Coverart for item
The Resource Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein, Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla ; prepared for the Joint Staff

Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein, Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla ; prepared for the Joint Staff

Creator
Contributor
Summary
This study applies an experimental interdisciplinary methodology for understanding the possible reasoning of opponents in crisis and conflict and for using that understanding to develop well-hedged and adaptive deterrent strategies. It develops alternative models of Saddam Hussein's reasoning from February 1990 to February 1991, using only information available at that time. The report then explains Saddam's behavior retrospectively and argues that having developed and worked with the alternative models during the crisis could have materially improved the formulation of U.S. strategy. The authors use the models to analyze such speculations as whether Saddam could have been deterred, and to suggest more general conclusions about appropriate strategies of deterrence in future crises. They recommend major changes in the processes by which the United States prepares for contingencies in peacetime, and deliberates about strategy as a crisis develops, including (1) for each contingency studied, the intelligence community should be required to develop and report on alternative models of the opponent, treating at least two or three seriously and avoiding convergence on a "best estimate"; and (2) despite pressures to avoid overcommitment, the United States should in peacetime take measures to protect strategically important buffers rather than allow future aggressors to underestimate their significance
Language
eng
Work
Publication
Extent
xix, 100 pages
Note
  • "Prepared for the Joint Staff."
  • "National Defense Research Institute"--Cover
  • "Rand library collection"--Label on cover
Isbn
9780833011923
Instance
Label
Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein
Title
Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis
Title remainder
lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein
Statement of responsibility
Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla ; prepared for the Joint Staff
Creator
Contributor
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
This study applies an experimental interdisciplinary methodology for understanding the possible reasoning of opponents in crisis and conflict and for using that understanding to develop well-hedged and adaptive deterrent strategies. It develops alternative models of Saddam Hussein's reasoning from February 1990 to February 1991, using only information available at that time. The report then explains Saddam's behavior retrospectively and argues that having developed and worked with the alternative models during the crisis could have materially improved the formulation of U.S. strategy. The authors use the models to analyze such speculations as whether Saddam could have been deterred, and to suggest more general conclusions about appropriate strategies of deterrence in future crises. They recommend major changes in the processes by which the United States prepares for contingencies in peacetime, and deliberates about strategy as a crisis develops, including (1) for each contingency studied, the intelligence community should be required to develop and report on alternative models of the opponent, treating at least two or three seriously and avoiding convergence on a "best estimate"; and (2) despite pressures to avoid overcommitment, the United States should in peacetime take measures to protect strategically important buffers rather than allow future aggressors to underestimate their significance
Member of
Cataloging source
DLC
http://library.link/vocab/creatorDate
1943-
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Davis, Paul K.
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
no index present
LC call number
  • U162.6
  • AS36
LC item number
  • .D39 1991
  • .R35 v. 4111
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)
  • United States
  • Rand Corporation
  • Arquilla, John
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Persian Gulf War
  • Deterrence (Strategy)
  • Persian Gulf War, 1991
  • Deterrence (Strategy)
Label
Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein, Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla ; prepared for the Joint Staff
Instantiates
Publication
Note
  • "Prepared for the Joint Staff."
  • "National Defense Research Institute"--Cover
  • "Rand library collection"--Label on cover
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 97-100)
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
  • nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
23 cm
Extent
xix, 100 pages
Isbn
9780833011923
Lccn
92140192
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • n
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
  • (OCoLC)24916211
  • (OCoLC)ocm24916211
Label
Deterring or coercing opponents in crisis : lessons from the war with Saddam Hussein, Paul K. Davis, John Arquilla ; prepared for the Joint Staff
Publication
Note
  • "Prepared for the Joint Staff."
  • "National Defense Research Institute"--Cover
  • "Rand library collection"--Label on cover
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 97-100)
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
  • nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
23 cm
Extent
xix, 100 pages
Isbn
9780833011923
Lccn
92140192
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • n
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
  • (OCoLC)24916211
  • (OCoLC)ocm24916211

Subject

Member of

Library Locations

  • African Studies LibraryBorrow it
    771 Commonwealth Avenue, 6th Floor, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.350723 -71.108227
  • Alumni Medical LibraryBorrow it
    72 East Concord Street, Boston, MA, 02118, US
    42.336388 -71.072393
  • Astronomy LibraryBorrow it
    725 Commonwealth Avenue, 6th Floor, Boston, MA, 02445, US
    42.350259 -71.105717
  • Fineman and Pappas Law LibrariesBorrow it
    765 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.350979 -71.107023
  • Frederick S. Pardee Management LibraryBorrow it
    595 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.349626 -71.099547
  • Howard Gotlieb Archival Research CenterBorrow it
    771 Commonwealth Avenue, 5th Floor, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.350723 -71.108227
  • Mugar Memorial LibraryBorrow it
    771 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.350723 -71.108227
  • Music LibraryBorrow it
    771 Commonwealth Avenue, 2nd Floor, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.350723 -71.108227
  • Pikering Educational Resources LibraryBorrow it
    2 Silber Way, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.349804 -71.101425
  • School of Theology LibraryBorrow it
    745 Commonwealth Avenue, 2nd Floor, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.350494 -71.107235
  • Science & Engineering LibraryBorrow it
    38 Cummington Mall, Boston, MA, 02215, US
    42.348472 -71.102257
  • Stone Science LibraryBorrow it
    675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02445, US
    42.350103 -71.103784

Library Links

Zepheira Logo
Structured data from the Bibframe namespace is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License by Boston University Libraries. Additional terms may apply to data associated with third party namespaces.
Processing Feedback ...